I love these predictions and I believe Ken is spot on! Looking back at his predictions from last year, I am a little sad that Shoebizness didn’t grow like we had hoped BUT all things happen in due time and I learned last year about the importance of sticking to the core of what makes a product unique and building at a pace that is managable. With a move from Miami to NYC and building a new business here, I simply couldn’t juggle it all. So for Shoebizness in 2011, you can expect to see many good things but perhaps not overnight. This year is about focus, quality and growth and I am so excited about it!! Cheers to Ken for sticking with me and being my #1 contributer since he began to write for this site!  -Julia

As we just closed out 2010, I would like to offer my predictions for the footwear industry for 2011.  Looking back at last years predictions, I was wrong more than I was right.  Never the less, it is time for me to be bold for 2011.

1. China will lose much of it’s allure

             - China = low labor cost.   It still does, but labor prices are rising as workers get less abundant.   Add to this the instability of it’s currency and fewer factories and you have the makings of a perfect storm.   Next stop – destination unknown!

2. Ugg will need to re-invent the short boot to stay on top.  

             - I spoke to many retailers who were gravely concerned in October that their basement was still full of Uggs.   Thankfully, the weather turned cold and most sold through their inventory, but not before a whole lot of Tums were digested.  The late selling had as much to do with a mature market as it did with warm weather.   It may have been one of Oprha’s favorite things, but if the weather had not turned a lot colder when it did, it would have been disastrous for retailers.

3. Skechers will become a $2,000,000,000 company by continuing to be the first to be second.

             - Lets face it, Skechers is a knock off company.   I do however, applaud their financial formula for success.   Take the latest, newest, hottest category, knock it off, and then get some highly visible cup cake or sports hero to promote it.   A note of caution: People take “cause” marketing very seriously.   Toms did a great job in creating a successful business model that combines uniqueness with philanthropy.   Skechers knocked off Toms(and I mean stitch for stitch) and called their brand “Bob’s”.   They do promise to give away a pair for every pair sold but come on guys, this is really low.

4. Brands will pull back on becoming “lifestyle brands”.

             - Be honest, did Crocs sell any of their high heel offerings?   When I saw them at my local mall kiosk, I had to laugh.   Why not concentrate on making product that is brand appropriate? I would love a pair for men, that were easy to get on and off, that I could wear exclusively in the men’s locker room shower at my local gym.  Please do not make this style a clog.

5. Big box stores will refocus on service or they will lose business to the internet.

             - Big box =  no customer service.   Why do I need to go there, if I can get it on line, overnight and pay no sales tax?

6. Our society will tire of “frugal fatigue”

             - We have pulled back for the last three years.   2011 will mark a turn around in peoples psyche.   No longer content to buy one pair of shoes that “go with everything”, people will start to “reward” themselves with a second pair of great, fun, emotionally appealing shoes.

7. The best brands of 2011 will be those that the spend the most on research, design and freshness.

             - Keen and Ugg have kept many a store afloat this year.   Again!   Time for something new and different.   Investing in design, and uniqueness will offer the best return this year.

8. Coupons, sales, BOGO’s are here to stay.

             - A great way to make up for mediocre product is to promote the hell out of it.   How often to you see a sale at the Apple store?

9. Family business, buy local, and support small business will gain momentum.

            – All these buzz words will be used far more frequently in promoting business.   

10. Unless stores give customers a reason to shop, the internet will continue to gain market share.

             - Many of my customers have said that their biggest threat comes from on line.   These stores need to leverage what the internet cannot do.   The internet will not call you back three days after a sale to see if your shoes are fitting ok and that all is well.   The internet will not “throw in” in a pair of socks because the ones you came in have a hole in them.   The internet will not hire a professional Santa so you can have your child’s picture taken and not have to pay $15 and wait in a long line.

I have been writing for Shoebizness for almost two years now and must say that I enjoy the opportunity to express myself.   To all of the people who have emailed, or posted comments, thank you.   For all of those who have wanted to, but did not have the time or guts, I say – get in the game!

Happy New year!
Ken Proctor
Front Man
Twig Footwear, LLC
Ken@twigfootwear.com
www.twigfootwear.com

832-748-1865